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ABSTRACT AimSurveying the demography of populations near species range edges may indicate their vulnerability to range contractions or local extinction as the climate changes. In the rocky intertidal, not only are latitudinal ranges constricted by thermal stress, but tides also create zonation or a ‘vertical range’ driven by sharp environmental gradients. By investigating demographics along the latitudinal and vertical ranges simultaneously, we can investigate whether populations may be vulnerable to a changing climate. LocationRocky intertidal habitats along west coast of the United States. TaxaOchre sea starPisaster ochraceus, six‐armed sea starLeptasteriasspp., emarginate whelks(Nucella ostrina and N. emarginata) and channeled whelkN. canaliculata. MethodsIn 2018, we surveyed the demographics of the taxa above at 33 sites spanning > 11° latitude from central Oregon to southern California, near the southern range limits of each taxon. We counted and sized individuals from the high to low intertidal zone. To understand how environmental stress changed with latitude, we evaluated intertidal temperaturesin situ, as well as tidal extremes, tidal amplitude and wave exposure using offshore buoys. ResultsFor all taxa, population density, the relative proportion of smaller individuals (except for emarginate whelks) and the upper vertical limits on the shore declined from north to south as temperatures increased and high tide height, tidal amplitude and wave heights decreased. In addition, smaller individualLeptasteriasspp. generally inhabited lower shore levels while smaller individual emarginate whelks inhabited higher shore levels coastwide. ForN. canaliculata, smaller animals were higher on shore northward, but lower on shore southward. Main ConclusionsWhile this study is a snapshot in time and cannot assess impacts of climate change, our surveys suggest environmentally‐related demographic limitation toward southern range limits and demographically vulnerable southern populations. Therefore, a warming climate may cause local extinctions or range contractions near southern limits. 

A powerful way to predict how ecological communities will respond to future climate change is to test how they have responded to the climate of the past. We used climate oscillations including the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and variation in upwelling, air temperature, and sea temperatures to test the sensitivity of nearshore rocky intertidal communities to climate variability. Prior research shows that multiple ecological processes of key taxa (growth, recruitment, and physiology) were sensitive to environmental variation during this time frame. We also investigated the effect of the concurrent sea star wasting disease outbreak in 2013–2014. We surveyed nearly 150 taxa from 11 rocky intertidal sites in Oregon and northern California annually for up to 14-years (2006–2020) to test if community structure (i.e., the abundance of functional groups) and diversity were sensitive to past environmental variation. We found little to no evidence that these communities were sensitive to annual variation in any of the environmental measures, and that each metric was associated with < 8.6% of yearly variation in community structure. Only the years elapsed since the outbreak of sea star wasting disease had a substantial effect on community structure, but in the mid-zone only where spatially dominant mussels are a main prey of the keystone predator sea star,Pisaster ochraceus. We conclude that the established sensitivity of multiple ecological processes to annual fluctuations in climate has not yet scaled up to influence community structure. Hence, the rocky intertidal system along this coastline appears resistant to the range of oceanic climate fluctuations that occurred during the study. However, given ongoing intensification of climate change and increasing frequencies of extreme events, future responses to climate change seem likely. 

Abstract Human‐caused global change produces biotic and abiotic conditions that increase the uncertainty and risk of failure of restoration efforts. A focus of managing for resiliency, that is, the ability of the system to respond to disturbance, has the potential to reduce this uncertainty and risk. However, identifying what drives resiliency might depend on how one measures it. An example of a system where identifying how the drivers of different aspects of resiliency can inform restoration under climate change is the northern coast of California, where kelp experienced a decline in coverage of over 95% due to the combination of an intense marine heat wave and the functional extinction of the primary predator of the kelp‐grazing purple sea urchin, the sunflower sea star. Although restoration efforts focused on urchin removal and kelp reintroduction in this system are ongoing, the question of how to increase the resiliency of this system to future marine heat waves remains open. In this paper, we introduce a dynamical model that describes a tritrophic food chain of kelp, purple urchins, and a purple urchin predator such as the sunflower sea star. We run a global sensitivity analysis of three different resiliency metrics (recovery likelihood, recovery rate, and resistance to disturbance) of the kelp forest to identify their ecological drivers. We find that each metric depends the most on a unique set of drivers: Recovery likelihood depends the most on live and drift kelp production, recovery rate depends the most on urchin production and feedbacks that determine urchin grazing on live kelp, and resistance depends the most on feedbacks that determine predator consumption of urchins. Therefore, an understanding of the potential role of predator reintroduction or recovery in kelp systems relies on a comprehensive approach to measuring resiliency. 

Climate change threatens to destabilize ecological communities, potentially moving them from persistently occupied “basins of attraction” to different states. Increasing variation in key ecological processes can signal impending state shifts in ecosystems. In a rocky intertidal meta-ecosystem consisting of three distinct regions spread across 260 km of the Oregon coast, we show that annually cleared sites are characterized by communities that exhibit signs of increasing destabilization (loss of resilience) over the past decade despite persistent community states. In all cases, recovery rates slowed and became more variable over time. The conditions underlying these shifts appear to be external to the system, with thermal disruptions (e.g., marine heat waves, El Niño–Southern Oscillation) and shifts in ocean currents (e.g., upwelling) being the likely proximate drivers. Although this iconic ecosystem has long appeared resistant to stress, the evidence suggests that subtle destabilization has occurred over at least the last decade.